With just three weeks remaining until Election Day, Donald Trump’s chances of defeating Kamala Harris have significantly improved in six of the seven key swing states, according to recent data from the betting platform Polymarket. Trump’s momentum has been particularly evident in battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, signaling a major shift in the final stretch of the 2024 presidential race.
BREAKING: Trump just SOARED to an all-time high against Kamala Harris with a 13.5-point lead in this morning’s Polymarket. pic.twitter.com/RtSi3E2ogv
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 15, 2024
A surge in Trump’s favorability has been recorded across the crucial battlegrounds that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 election. These swing states, which played a pivotal role in the 2020 election, are once again proving to be critical. According to Polymarket data, Trump’s lead has grown most dramatically in Arizona, where he has gained considerable ground since the 2020 election, a year when Democrats narrowly flipped the state.
The increase in support for Trump is not limited to Arizona. In Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, Trump has seen his odds of winning rise as well, reflecting growing support among voters in these fiercely contested areas. Together, these states hold a significant number of electoral votes, which will play a decisive role in determining who wins the White House.
Nevada, a traditionally Democratic-leaning state that remains highly contested, shows a narrower margin but is still a key target for both campaigns as Election Day approaches. Despite Harris maintaining some strength there, the overall trend points toward a Trump advantage in most other swing states.
As of today, Trump’s national odds of defeating Kamala Harris have increased by 2.5 percent, with his chances now sitting at 56.5 percent compared to Harris’ 43.1 percent, according to Polymarket. This surge in Trump’s odds comes as political bettors and analysts closely monitor the intensifying race, particularly in the final weeks before Election Day.
Polymarket, a betting platform partly funded by tech billionaire and early Trump supporter Peter Thiel, offers an alternative outlook on the election compared to traditional polling methods. While many national polls continue to show a tight race, or even a slight lead for Harris, betting markets like Polymarket capture a different sentiment, particularly among those wagering on the election’s outcome.
Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, highlighted the significance of betting platforms as indicators of electoral momentum. In his analysis of contract prices from PredictIt, another political betting market, Miller projected a potential landslide victory for Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance. Miller argued that betting markets often reflect voter enthusiasm and momentum in a way that traditional polls may fail to capture.
“Betting markets aren’t just about the numbers—they show the mood and expectations of those who are actively engaging in the political landscape,” Miller explained. “These platforms can pick up on trends and changes in voter enthusiasm that static polling may miss, especially as the race tightens in the final weeks.”
The upcoming election is likely to hinge on the seven swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Nevada—where Trump has seen his favorability rise. Each state carries considerable electoral weight, making them crucial to both candidates’ paths to victory. With tight races in these battlegrounds, each campaign is making a final push to sway undecided voters and solidify support.
Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania in particular are shaping up to be some of the most fiercely contested states, with both Trump and Harris pouring resources into these areas in the final weeks. Pennsylvania, which flipped to Biden in 2020 after years of Republican dominance, is now back in play for Trump, while Georgia, a traditionally Republican state that narrowly went blue in the last election, is also showing signs of a potential flip back to the GOP.
Kamala Harris, who has faced challenges in gaining momentum among key voting demographics, now finds herself trailing in six of the most critical states. This comes as both candidates ramp up their efforts in the last few weeks of the campaign. Harris has made stops in several swing states to energize her base, but Trump’s gains suggest he is capitalizing on growing voter dissatisfaction with the current administration.
In addition to national factors, local issues in swing states such as the economy, inflation, and crime have also played a significant role in shaping voter preferences. Trump’s messaging, focused heavily on these concerns, appears to be resonating with voters in these states, particularly in the Midwest and South.
LOOK:
PolyMarket Screenshot
Similarly, his favorability has increased in Georgia and Pennsylvania, both of which were key battlegrounds in the previous election cycle.
PolyMarket Screenshot 
PolyMarket Screenshot
Michigan, North Carolina, and Wisconsin have also seen shifts in Trump’s favor as the election nears.
PolyMarket Screenshot 
PolyMarket Screenshot 
PolyMarket Screenshot
One notable exception to this trend is Nevada, where Harris holds a slim lead.
According to Polymarket, the vice president has a 51 percent chance of winning in Nevada, while Trump is close behind at 49 percent.
PolyMarket Screenshot
With Election Day fast approaching, the final outcome remains unpredictable, especially as the candidates double down on their efforts in swing states. Both campaigns are expected to spend the next three weeks heavily focused on these battlegrounds, where the fight for the White House will ultimately be decided.
The betting markets, as well as traditional polling, will continue to track this dynamic race, and the final days leading up to the election will likely see both Trump and Harris intensify their push for last-minute support in the critical states. Whether Trump’s current lead in the betting markets translates into actual votes remains to be seen, but one thing is clear—the race is far from over.
With both candidates neck-and-neck in many battlegrounds, the outcome of the 2024 election will likely hinge on a few pivotal swing states and could go down to the wire.