So much for the recession doom and gloom. Despite the headlines that liberal economists were practically cheering on earlier this year, the U.S. economy is showing strong signs of resilience—and it’s happening under President Donald Trump’s leadership.
According to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank’s latest estimate, GDP growth for the second quarter of 2025 is now projected at a whopping 4.6 percent. That’s a major bump from the 3.8 percent estimate just days earlier and a far cry from the Q1 narrative that warned of contraction and panic. Maybe it’s time for the so-called “experts” to recheck their math—or at least admit that the Trump economic engine is picking up serious speed.
Fox Business Network host David Asman summed up the shift nicely in a post on X: “Just a few weeks ago the ‘experts’ were warning of another negative GDP quarter, with a recession looming. Now this: ‘Atlanta Fed GDP now growth estimate for Q2 rises to 4.6% from 3.8%.’”
The forecast bump followed new data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management. Personal consumption expenditures and gross private domestic investment both rose, prompting the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model to update its growth outlook. In short, Americans are spending, businesses are investing, and despite constant media narratives of economic despair, the real numbers are telling a very different story.
Let’s rewind to just a few months ago. The first quarter GDP showed a slight contraction of 0.3 percent, and mainstream economists rushed to declare the return of economic pain. But conservative economists, including the Heritage Foundation’s E.J. Antoni, were already pointing out the anomaly: a flood of imports driven by businesses stocking up ahead of anticipated Trump tariffs.
Antoni had warned that the spike in imports would reverse in Q2 and Q3, lifting GDP growth as imports fell. Turns out, he was exactly right. “Guess we found all the ‘missing’ imports,” Antoni joked on X, noting that consumer spending and investment had flipped positive, pushing the Q2 estimate up to 4.6 percent.
Back in April, he predicted both the Atlanta and New York Feds would increase their growth forecasts, and that’s precisely what’s happened. Maybe Washington should start listening to the folks outside the D.C. cocktail circuit a little more often.
It’s not just GDP growth that’s improving. Inflation continues to cool, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure—falling to 2.1 percent in April. Meanwhile, the consumer price index (CPI) also dipped to 2.3 percent, its lowest level since early 2021.
That’s before the Democrats pushed through their $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan,” which many economists now admit helped kick off the worst inflation in four decades. Now, under Trump’s fiscally conservative leadership, inflation is finally getting back under control. Who could have guessed?
And there’s more good news: personal income rose by 0.8 percent in April—nearly triple expectations. CNBC’s Rick Santelli even called it “a GREAT four-month start to any year.” When CNBC is willing to admit that the numbers look strong, you know things must be going well.
While D.C. elites and their media allies wring their hands over trade policy and post their latest fears about tariffs on social media, everyday Americans are experiencing something different: rising incomes, lower inflation, and a steadily growing economy.
This is the Trump economy in action. It’s pro-growth, pro-worker, and rooted in the idea that American businesses and families thrive best when the government steps aside and lets them work.
It’s still early in Q2, but with this kind of momentum, even the naysayers might have to admit that things are looking up. Just don’t expect them to say it out loud—at least not until after the election.