A new statewide survey, cited by WLT Report, shows Republican Ken Paxton narrowly ahead of Democrat James Talarico in a Texas U.S. Senate contest that the source post claims has attracted more than $440 million in total spending.
What the new poll says
According to WLT Report, a Quantus Insights poll of likely voters found Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2.2% and 3.9% undecided. The half-point gap is within the survey’s margin of error, per the post.
The same post says this is Paxton’s first lead in the RealClearPolling average this cycle, after previous public polls had shown Talarico ahead. It cites specific earlier margins from Trafalgar (Talarico +3), NYT/Siena and YouGov (each +6 for Talarico), and Fox News (+2 for Talarico.
Where Quantus sees the shifts
WLT Report says Quantus’ crosstabs show Paxton leading voters 65 and older by 17 points, carrying rural voters 64%–30%, and winning white voters 59%–36%. It also reports a five-point Paxton edge in the suburbs and notes that, on a “values alignment” question, Quantus found 48.6% for Paxton and 45.5% for Talarico.
Money and stakes, per the source
The source post claims the race has drawn over $440 million, calling it the most expensive nonpresidential contest in U.S. history. It cites AdImpact estimates of roughly $323 million in Republican spending versus $116 million from Democrats. The post also says Talarico has raised $72 million cumulatively since early 2025, while Paxton reported $18 million in Q3, which the post describes as double his previous haul.
The post quotes Sen. Ted Cruz as saying, “We could lose Texas. This is a five-alarm fire right now.” It also says prediction markets give Talarico a 63% chance and that the RealClearPolling average still shows him ahead by about three points.
Other claims the post makes
The post alleges Talarico’s voting record places him with his party’s progressive wing on border, energy, and social issues, and says Paxton’s ads emphasize that contrast. It also claims Talarico paused campaigning for about two weeks due to the flu, that Republicans circulated “MISSING” flyers, that former President Donald Trump mocked him at a San Antonio rally, and that Talarico later taunted Paxton on social media and challenged him to a debate. These points are presented in the source post; they were not independently verified here.
What to watch
The source post says early voting opens October 19 in Texas. It emphasizes that the Quantus lead is within the margin of error and frames the contest as competitive despite the spending figures it cites.
Attribution: The source post credits WLT Report and lists Newsweek as a source.
